Viewing archive of Monday, 22 September 2014

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Sep 22 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 265 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Sep 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (23 Sep, 24 Sep, 25 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 504 km/s at 22/0035Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 22/1508Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 22/1559Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2 pfu at 22/1300Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 178 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (23 Sep, 24 Sep, 25 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 23 Sep to 25 Sep
Class M30%30%30%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       22 Sep 130
  Predicted   23 Sep-25 Sep 130/135/135
  90 Day Mean        22 Sep 132

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 21 Sep  007/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 22 Sep  007/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 23 Sep-25 Sep  007/010-008/010-007/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Sep to 25 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%25%30%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm30%30%30%
Major-severe storm40%40%40%

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