Viewing archive of Thursday, 18 September 2014

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Sep 18 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 261 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Sep 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 18/0841Z from Region 2169 (N05E53). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (19 Sep, 20 Sep, 21 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 424 km/s at 17/2242Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 17/2316Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 18/1828Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (19 Sep, 20 Sep, 21 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 19 Sep to 21 Sep
Class M20%20%20%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       18 Sep 120
  Predicted   19 Sep-21 Sep 120/115/115
  90 Day Mean        18 Sep 131

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 17 Sep  004/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 18 Sep  004/006
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 19 Sep-21 Sep  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Sep to 21 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm01%01%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm20%20%15%
Major-severe storm20%20%15%

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