Viewing archive of Friday, 12 September 2014

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Sep 11 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 254 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Sep 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at 11/1526Z. There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (12 Sep, 13 Sep, 14 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 404 km/s at 11/0248Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 10/2252Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 11/0356Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 28 pfu at 11/0515Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 154 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (12 Sep), active to severe storm levels on day two (13 Sep) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (14 Sep). Protons are expected to cross threshold on days one and two (12 Sep, 13 Sep) and are expected to cross threshold on day three (14 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 12 Sep to 14 Sep
Class M85%85%85%
Class X50%50%50%
Proton99%99%90%
PCAFred
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       11 Sep 151
  Predicted   12 Sep-14 Sep 152/150/150
  90 Day Mean        11 Sep 129

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 10 Sep  009/009
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 11 Sep  012/012
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 12 Sep-14 Sep  028/040-037/060-018/025

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Sep to 14 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%15%45%
Minor storm45%40%30%
Major-severe storm25%45%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active05%01%05%
Minor storm15%10%20%
Major-severe storm85%90%75%

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