Viewing archive of Wednesday, 10 September 2014

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Sep 10 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 253 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Sep 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z

Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was an X1/2b event observed at 10/1745Z from Region 2158 (N15E00). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (11 Sep, 12 Sep, 13 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 396 km/s at 10/1533Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 10/2038Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 10/1917Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2 pfu at 09/2125Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 212 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (11 Sep), quiet to major storm levels on day two (12 Sep) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (13 Sep). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (11 Sep, 12 Sep, 13 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 11 Sep to 13 Sep
Class M85%85%85%
Class X40%40%40%
Proton30%30%30%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       10 Sep 160
  Predicted   11 Sep-13 Sep 160/165/165
  90 Day Mean        10 Sep 129

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 09 Sep  008/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 10 Sep  007/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 11 Sep-13 Sep  006/005-021/032-018/018

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Sep to 13 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%30%45%
Minor storm05%45%25%
Major-severe storm01%20%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%05%10%
Minor storm20%15%25%
Major-severe storm20%79%70%

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