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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Aug 01 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 213 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Aug 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at 01/1448Z from Region 2130 (S07E27). There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (02 Aug, 03 Aug, 04 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 437 km/s at 01/2044Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 01/1415Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 01/1650Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (02 Aug, 03 Aug) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (04 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 02 Aug to 04 Aug
Class M55%55%55%
Class X20%20%20%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       01 Aug 168
  Predicted   02 Aug-04 Aug 165/160/155
  90 Day Mean        01 Aug 130

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 31 Jul  007/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 01 Aug  007/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 02 Aug-04 Aug  008/010-013/014-010/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Aug to 04 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%30%20%
Minor storm05%10%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%15%15%
Minor storm30%30%25%
Major-severe storm30%40%30%

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