Viewing archive of Thursday, 31 July 2014
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Jul 31 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 212 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Jul 2014IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
31/1114Z from Region 2130 (S07E42). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (01 Aug, 02 Aug,
03 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 348 km/s at
31/1006Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 31/2044Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -4 nT at 31/2035Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (01 Aug) and quiet to active levels on
days two and three (02 Aug, 03 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 01 Aug to 03 Aug
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 31 Jul 156 Predicted 01 Aug-03 Aug 160/160/150 90 Day Mean 31 Jul 130
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Jul 007/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Jul 006/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Aug-03 Aug 006/005-006/008-013/014
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Aug to 03 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 25% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 30% | 40% |
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