Viewing archive of Tuesday, 1 July 2014

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Jul 01 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 182 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Jul 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 01-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 01/1123Z from Region 2106 (N15E46). There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (02 Jul, 03 Jul, 04 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 439 km/s at 01/0500Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 30/2130Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 01/0146Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (02 Jul, 03 Jul) and quiet levels on day three (04 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 02 Jul to 04 Jul
Class M50%50%50%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       01 Jul 152
  Predicted   02 Jul-04 Jul 155/160/160
  90 Day Mean        01 Jul 132

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 30 Jun  007/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 01 Jul  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 02 Jul-04 Jul  007/008-009/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Jul to 04 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%05%
Minor storm05%05%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm20%20%15%
Major-severe storm20%20%05%

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