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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Jun 21 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 172 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Jun 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 21/1119Z from Region 2093 (S09W06). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (22 Jun, 23 Jun, 24 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 502 km/s at 21/2038. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 20/2145Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 20/2104Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 198 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on days one and two (22 Jun, 23 Jun) and quiet to active levels on day three (24 Jun) with a chance for minor storms in response the the passage of transient features.
III. Event Probabilities 22 Jun to 24 Jun
Class M25%25%25%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       21 Jun 101
  Predicted   22 Jun-24 Jun 100/100/100
  90 Day Mean        21 Jun 136

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 20 Jun  010/009
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 21 Jun  006/006
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 22 Jun-24 Jun  013/018-018/018-011/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Jun to 24 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%40%40%
Minor storm25%25%20%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm20%20%25%
Major-severe storm35%25%35%

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