Viewing archive of Wednesday, 18 June 2014
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Jun 18 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 169 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Jun 2014IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
18/0331Z from Region 2087 (S20W35). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
day one (19 Jun) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares
on day two (20 Jun) and likely to be low with a chance for M-class
flares on day three (21 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
499 km/s at 17/2303Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 18/1857Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 18/2037Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (19 Jun, 20 Jun, 21
Jun). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing
threshold on day one (19 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 19 Jun to 21 Jun
| Class M | 50% | 40% | 30% |
| Class X | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Jun 111 Predicted 19 Jun-21 Jun 110/105/105 90 Day Mean 18 Jun 138
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Jun 009/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Jun 009/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Jun-21 Jun 005/005-005/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Jun to 21 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
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