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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 May 24 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 144 Issued at 2200Z on 24 May 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 24/1835Z from Region 2065 (S18W59). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (25 May, 26 May, 27 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 501 km/s at 24/0533Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 23/2107Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 23/2107Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and three (25 May, 27 May) and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (26 May).
III. Event Probabilities 25 May to 27 May
Class M 20%20%20%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       24 May 118
  Predicted    25 May-27 May 118/118/115
  90 Day Mean        24 May 146

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 23 May  017/019
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 24 May  006/007
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 25 May-27 May  006/005-007/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 May to 27 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%15%05%
Minor storm 01%01%01%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%20%15%
Minor storm 15%30%15%
Major-severe storm 05%20%05%

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