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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 May 23 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 143 Issued at 2200Z on 23 May 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 23/0458Z from Region 2065 (S18W46). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (24 May, 25 May, 26 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 550 km/s at 23/0757Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 22/2226Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -12 nT at 23/0017Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (24 May) and quiet levels on days two and three (25 May, 26 May).
III. Event Probabilities 24 May to 26 May
Class M 10%10%10%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       23 May 116
  Predicted    24 May-26 May 115/115/115
  90 Day Mean        23 May 147

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 22 May  009/010
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 23 May  010/013
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 24 May-26 May  008/008-006/005-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 May to 26 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%05%15%
Minor storm 10%01%01%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%20%
Minor storm 30%15%30%
Major-severe storm 45%05%20%

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