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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 May 22 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 142 Issued at 2200Z on 22 May 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at 22/0310Z from Region 2072 (S18W19). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (23 May, 24 May, 25 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 375 km/s at 22/1139Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 22/2053Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 22/1537Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (23 May) and quiet levels on days two and three (24 May, 25 May).
III. Event Probabilities 23 May to 25 May
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       22 May 111
  Predicted   23 May-25 May 105/105/105
  90 Day Mean        22 May 147

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 21 May  003/002
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 22 May  008/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 23 May-25 May  008/008-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 May to 25 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%05%05%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%15%15%
Minor storm30%15%15%
Major-severe storm20%05%05%

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