Viewing archive of Thursday, 8 May 2014

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 May 08 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 128 Issued at 2200Z on 08 May 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z

Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M5 event observed at 08/1007Z from Region 2056 (N04E44). There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (09 May, 10 May, 11 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 378 km/s at 07/2137Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 08/0732Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at 08/0729Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (09 May, 11 May) and quiet to active levels on day two (10 May).
III. Event Probabilities 09 May to 11 May
Class M40%40%40%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       08 May 148
  Predicted   09 May-11 May 145/145/150
  90 Day Mean        08 May 150

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 07 May  005/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 08 May  012/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 09 May-11 May  008/008-011/012-010/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 May to 11 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%35%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%15%20%
Minor storm30%30%30%
Major-severe storm25%45%25%

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