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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 May 07 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 127 Issued at 2200Z on 07 May 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was an M1 event observed at 07/1629Z from Region 2051 (S09, L=060). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (08 May, 09 May, 10 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 374 km/s at 07/0043Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 07/1958Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 07/1958Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (08 May, 09 May) and quiet to active levels on day three (10 May).
III. Event Probabilities 08 May to 10 May
Class M25%25%25%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       07 May 146
  Predicted   08 May-10 May 145/145/150
  90 Day Mean        07 May 151

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 06 May  004/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 07 May  003/004
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 08 May-10 May  008/008-008/008-011/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 May to 10 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%35%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%20%15%
Minor storm25%30%30%
Major-severe storm20%25%45%

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