Viewing archive of Tuesday, 6 May 2014
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 May 06 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 126 Issued at 2200Z on 06 May 2014IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was an M1 event observed at
06/0903Z from Region 2051 (S09W92). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
day one (07 May) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares
on days two and three (08 May, 09 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 425 km/s at
05/2150Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 05/2209Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -3 nT at 05/2139Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (07 May) and quiet to unsettled levels
on days two and three (08 May, 09 May).
III. Event Probabilities 07 May to 09 May
| Class M | 40% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 May 139 Predicted 07 May-09 May 135/135/135 90 Day Mean 06 May 151
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 May 011/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 06 May 006/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 07 May-09 May 006/005-008/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 May to 09 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 20% | 25% |
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