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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Apr 27 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 117 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Apr 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (28 Apr, 29 Apr, 30 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 371 km/s at 26/2136Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2920 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (28 Apr) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (29 Apr, 30 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 28 Apr to 30 Apr
Class M 10%10%10%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       27 Apr 118
  Predicted    28 Apr-30 Apr 115/120/120
  90 Day Mean        27 Apr 156

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 26 Apr  008/010
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 27 Apr  004/005
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 28 Apr-30 Apr  006/005-008/008-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Apr to 30 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%20%20%
Minor storm 01%05%05%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%20%20%
Minor storm 15%30%30%
Major-severe storm 05%30%30%

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