Viewing archive of Saturday, 26 April 2014

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Apr 26 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 116 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Apr 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 26/1459Z. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on day one (27 Apr) and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days two and three (28 Apr, 29 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 419 km/s at 26/0523Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 26/1031Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 25/2200Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2678 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (27 Apr, 28 Apr) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (29 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 27 Apr to 29 Apr
Class M 10%05%05%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       26 Apr 121
  Predicted    27 Apr-29 Apr 118/115/112
  90 Day Mean        26 Apr 156

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 25 Apr  007/010
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 26 Apr  007/007
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 27 Apr-29 Apr  006/005-006/005-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Apr to 29 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%05%20%
Minor storm 01%01%05%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%20%
Minor storm 15%15%30%
Major-severe storm 05%05%30%

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