Viewing archive of Thursday, 24 April 2014

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Apr 24 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 114 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Apr 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 23/2353Z from Region 2044 (S18E04). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one and two (25 Apr, 26 Apr) and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on day three (27 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 505 km/s at 24/1954Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 24/0222Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 23/2222Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 162 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (25 Apr) and quiet levels on days two and three (26 Apr, 27 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 25 Apr to 27 Apr
Class M 25%25%15%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       24 Apr 130
  Predicted    25 Apr-27 Apr 125/120/118
  90 Day Mean        24 Apr 156

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 23 Apr  006/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 24 Apr  008/008
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 25 Apr-27 Apr  008/008-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Apr to 27 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%05%05%
Minor storm 05%01%01%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%15%15%
Minor storm 30%15%15%
Major-severe storm 30%05%05%

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