Viewing archive of Wednesday, 23 April 2014

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Apr 23 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 113 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Apr 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at 23/1306Z from Region 2035 (S13W85). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one and two (24 Apr, 25 Apr) and likely to be low with a chance for M-class flares on day three (26 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 482 km/s at 23/0123Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 23/1727Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 23/1605Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (24 Apr, 25 Apr) and quiet levels on day three (26 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 24 Apr to 26 Apr
Class M40%30%25%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       23 Apr 136
  Predicted   24 Apr-26 Apr 125/125/125
  90 Day Mean        23 Apr 156

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 22 Apr  004/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 23 Apr  007/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 24 Apr-26 Apr  007/008-008/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Apr to 26 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%05%
Minor storm05%05%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%15%
Minor storm30%30%15%
Major-severe storm30%30%05%

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