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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Apr 21 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 111 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Apr 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at 21/2002Z from Region 2038 (S10W20). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on day one (22 Apr) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days two and three (23 Apr, 24 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 711 km/s at 20/2206Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 20/2126Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 21/0030Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (22 Apr) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (23 Apr, 24 Apr). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (22 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 22 Apr to 24 Apr
Class M50%40%30%
Class X10%05%01%
Proton10%05%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       21 Apr 159
  Predicted   22 Apr-24 Apr 160/150/150
  90 Day Mean        21 Apr 156

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 20 Apr  020/021
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 21 Apr  014/017
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 22 Apr-24 Apr  014/015-007/008-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Apr to 24 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%20%20%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm30%30%30%
Major-severe storm35%25%25%

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