Viewing archive of Saturday, 19 April 2014

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Apr 19 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 109 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Apr 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at 19/1932Z from Region 2032 (N12W83). There are currently 12 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on day one (20 Apr) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days two and three (21 Apr, 22 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 583 km/s at 19/1858Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 18/2118Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 18/2345Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 58 pfu at 19/0105Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 242 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (20 Apr), quiet to minor storm levels on day two (21 Apr) and quiet to active levels on day three (22 Apr). Protons are expected to remain above the 10 pfu threshold on days one and two (20-21 Apr) and have a chance of crossing threshold on day three (22 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 20 Apr to 22 Apr
Class M55%50%50%
Class X10%05%05%
Proton99%75%50%
PCAFred
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       19 Apr 169
  Predicted   20 Apr-22 Apr 170/170/160
  90 Day Mean        19 Apr 156

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 18 Apr  007/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 19 Apr  014/017
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 20 Apr-22 Apr  022/035-021/025-009/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Apr to 22 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%40%35%
Minor storm40%35%15%
Major-severe storm20%10%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active05%05%10%
Minor storm15%20%25%
Major-severe storm75%75%50%

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