Viewing archive of Friday, 18 April 2014

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Apr 18 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 108 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Apr 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z

Solar activity reached high levels. Region 2036 (S16W41, Dhc/beta-gamma) produced an M7 flare at 18/1303 UTC, which was the largest flare of the period. It was accompanied by a Tenflare (1000 sfu), a Castelli-U signature, as well as Type II (851 km/s) and Type IV radio emissions. An asymmetric halo CME was subsequently observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery at 18/1325 UTC. Analysis suggested the ejecta was moving at approximately 1000 km/s and Earth-directed.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (19 Apr, 20 Apr, 21 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 540 km/s at 18/1845Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 18/0207Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 18/0243Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 38 pfu at 18/1955Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (19 Apr) and quiet to minor storm levels on days two and three (20 Apr, 21 Apr) with a chance for major storm levels on day two (20 Apr). Protons are expected to remain above the 10 pfu threshold on day one (19 Apr), are expected to cross threshold on day two (20 Apr) and have a chance of crossing threshold on day three (21 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 19 Apr to 21 Apr
Class M60%60%60%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton99%75%50%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       18 Apr 172
  Predicted   19 Apr-21 Apr 175/175/175
  90 Day Mean        18 Apr 156

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 17 Apr  011/011
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 18 Apr  007/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 19 Apr-21 Apr  009/012-018/025-017/020

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Apr to 21 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%40%40%
Minor storm15%35%25%
Major-severe storm01%10%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%05%05%
Minor storm25%20%20%
Major-severe storm55%75%60%

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