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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Apr 12 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 102 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Apr 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at 12/0727Z from Region 2035 (S16E62). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (13 Apr, 14 Apr, 15 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 372 km/s at 11/2209Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 12/1410Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 12/0611Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (13 Apr) and quiet levels on days two and three (14 Apr, 15 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 13 Apr to 15 Apr
Class M35%40%45%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       12 Apr 136
  Predicted   13 Apr-15 Apr 140/140/145
  90 Day Mean        12 Apr 153

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 11 Apr  007/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 12 Apr  019/025
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 13 Apr-15 Apr  011/015-007/008-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Apr to 15 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%25%25%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm25%25%25%
Major-severe storm40%35%35%

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