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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Apr 11 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 101 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Apr 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at 11/1124Z from Region 2035 (S15E74). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (12 Apr, 13 Apr, 14 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 439 km/s at 11/0057Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 11/2056Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 11/2038Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (12 Apr, 13 Apr) and quiet levels on day three (14 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 12 Apr to 14 Apr
Class M35%35%35%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       11 Apr 138
  Predicted   12 Apr-14 Apr 140/145/145
  90 Day Mean        11 Apr 154

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 10 Apr  004/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 11 Apr  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 12 Apr-14 Apr  008/010-011/012-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Apr to 14 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%30%25%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm25%25%25%
Major-severe storm40%40%35%

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