Viewing archive of Thursday, 10 April 2014

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Apr 10 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 100 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Apr 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at 10/0152Z. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (11 Apr, 12 Apr, 13 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 472 km/s at 09/2230Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 10/2059Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -1 nT at 09/2246Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (11 Apr) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (12 Apr, 13 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 11 Apr to 13 Apr
Class M25%25%25%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       10 Apr 137
  Predicted   11 Apr-13 Apr 140/140/145
  90 Day Mean        10 Apr 154

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 09 Apr  005/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 10 Apr  002/003
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 11 Apr-13 Apr  006/005-008/008-011/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Apr to 13 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%30%30%
Minor storm01%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm15%25%25%
Major-severe storm05%40%40%

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