Viewing archive of Monday, 31 March 2014
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Mar 31 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 90 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Mar 2014IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
31/0807Z from Region 2014 (S13W91). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(01 Apr, 02 Apr, 03 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
441 km/s at 31/1722Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 31/1757Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 31/1629Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (01 Apr, 03 Apr)
and unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (02 Apr). Protons have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (01 Apr,
02 Apr, 03 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 01 Apr to 03 Apr
| Class M | 55% | 55% | 55% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 31 Mar 152 Predicted 01 Apr-03 Apr 150/145/145 90 Day Mean 31 Mar 159
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Mar 005/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Mar 007/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Apr-03 Apr 010/012-020/028-009/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Apr to 03 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 40% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 25% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 35% | 60% | 30% |
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