Viewing archive of Saturday, 29 March 2014

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Mar 29 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 88 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Mar 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z

Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a X1 event observed at 29/1748Z from Region 2017 (N10W34). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (30 Mar, 31 Mar, 01 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 450 km/s at 29/0321Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 28/2127Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 29/0203Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (30 Mar, 31 Mar) and quiet to active levels on day three (01 Apr). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (30 Mar, 31 Mar, 01 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 30 Mar to 01 Apr
Class M 55%55%55%
Class X 20%20%20%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       29 Mar 143
  Predicted    30 Mar-01 Apr 140/140/140
  90 Day Mean        29 Mar 159

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 28 Mar  009/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 29 Mar  007/007
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 30 Mar-01 Apr  006/005-006/005-010/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Mar to 01 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%05%30%
Minor storm 01%01%05%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm 15%15%30%
Major-severe storm 05%05%35%

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