Viewing archive of Tuesday, 25 March 2014

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Mar 25 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 84 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Mar 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 25/0610Z from Region 2010 (S14W41). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (26 Mar, 27 Mar, 28 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 503 km/s at 25/2042Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 25/1938Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 25/1938Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (26 Mar) and quiet levels on days two and three (27 Mar, 28 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 26 Mar to 28 Mar
Class M 35%35%35%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       25 Mar 153
  Predicted    26 Mar-28 Mar 155/160/160
  90 Day Mean        25 Mar 159

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 24 Mar  004/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 25 Mar  007/009
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 26 Mar-28 Mar  010/012-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Mar to 28 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%05%05%
Minor storm 10%01%01%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm 30%15%15%
Major-severe storm 40%05%05%

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