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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Mar 23 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 82 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Mar 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at 23/0348Z from Region 2014 (S14E20). There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (24 Mar, 25 Mar, 26 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 525 km/s at 23/0044Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 22/2129Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 23/1746Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (24 Mar, 26 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (25 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 24 Mar to 26 Mar
Class M 45%45%45%
Class X 05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       23 Mar 157
  Predicted    24 Mar-26 Mar 155/155/160
  90 Day Mean        23 Mar 158

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 22 Mar  007/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 23 Mar  007/007
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 24 Mar-26 Mar  009/010-008/008-011/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Mar to 26 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%10%30%
Minor storm 05%01%10%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm 25%20%30%
Major-severe storm 30%20%40%

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