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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Mar 20 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 79 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Mar 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was an M1 event observed at 20/0356Z from Region 2010 (S15E25). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (21 Mar, 22 Mar, 23 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 360 km/s at 20/0801Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 20/0820Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 20/0908Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (21 Mar, 22 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (23 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 21 Mar to 23 Mar
Class M45%45%45%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       20 Mar 151
  Predicted   21 Mar-23 Mar 150/150/145
  90 Day Mean        20 Mar 157

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 19 Mar  002/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 20 Mar  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 21 Mar-23 Mar  006/005-006/005-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Mar to 23 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%05%10%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm15%15%20%
Major-severe storm05%05%20%

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