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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Mar 16 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 75 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Mar 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at 16/0645Z from Region 2003 (N05W91). There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (17 Mar, 18 Mar, 19 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 409 km/s at 15/2354Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (17 Mar) and quiet levels on days two and three (18 Mar, 19 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 17 Mar to 19 Mar
Class M 50%50%50%
Class X 10%10%10%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       16 Mar 136
  Predicted    17 Mar-19 Mar 135/135/135
  90 Day Mean        16 Mar 158

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 15 Mar  026/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 16 Mar  003/004
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 17 Mar-19 Mar  008/008-007/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Mar to 19 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%05%
Minor storm 01%01%01%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm 20%20%15%
Major-severe storm 15%15%05%

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