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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Mar 15 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 74 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Mar 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at 15/1715Z from Region 2003 (N05W78). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (16 Mar, 17 Mar, 18 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 443 km/s at 15/0134Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 14/2102Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 15/0134Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (16 Mar, 17 Mar) and quiet levels on day three (18 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 16 Mar to 18 Mar
Class M 60%60%60%
Class X 10%10%10%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       15 Mar 139
  Predicted    16 Mar-18 Mar 135/135/135
  90 Day Mean        15 Mar 158

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 14 Mar  002/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 15 Mar  005/005
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 16 Mar-18 Mar  009/008-008/008-006/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Mar to 18 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%10%05%
Minor storm 01%01%01%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm 25%20%15%
Major-severe storm 20%15%05%

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