Viewing archive of Friday, 14 March 2014

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Mar 14 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 73 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Mar 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at 14/1021Z from Region 1996 (N16, L=051) which rotated off the east limb yesterday. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (15 Mar, 16 Mar, 17 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 626 km/s at 14/0523Z but was generally around 450 km/s. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 14/1056Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 14/1258Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (15 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (16 Mar, 17 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 15 Mar to 17 Mar
Class M 70%70%70%
Class X 10%10%10%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       14 Mar 144
  Predicted    15 Mar-17 Mar 145/140/140
  90 Day Mean        14 Mar 158

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 13 Mar  007/011
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 14 Mar  006/007
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 15 Mar-17 Mar  006/008-008/005-008/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Mar to 17 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%15%10%
Minor storm 01%01%01%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm 15%25%20%
Major-severe storm 05%20%15%

<< Go to daily overview page

Latest news

Support SpaceWeatherLive.com!

A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!

100%

Latest alerts

Get instant alerts!

Space weather facts

Last X-flare:2017/09/10X8.2
Last M-flare:2017/10/20M1.0
Last geomagnetic storm:2019/09/02Kp5 (G1)
Number of spotless days in 2019:184
Current stretch spotless days:14

This day in history*

Solar flares
12000M5.9
22001M5.6
32005M4.4
42005M3.5
52000M3.3
ApG
1200334G2
2199931G2
3200029G2
4201728G1
5200419
*since 1994

Social networks