Viewing archive of Friday, 14 March 2014

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Mar 14 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 73 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Mar 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at 14/1021Z from Region 1996 (N16, L=051) which rotated off the east limb yesterday. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (15 Mar, 16 Mar, 17 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 626 km/s at 14/0523Z but was generally around 450 km/s. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 14/1056Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 14/1258Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (15 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (16 Mar, 17 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 15 Mar to 17 Mar
Class M 70%70%70%
Class X 10%10%10%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       14 Mar 144
  Predicted    15 Mar-17 Mar 145/140/140
  90 Day Mean        14 Mar 158

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 13 Mar  007/011
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 14 Mar  006/007
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 15 Mar-17 Mar  006/008-008/005-008/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Mar to 17 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm 01%01%01%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm 15%25%20%
Major-severe storm 05%20%15%

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