Viewing archive of Thursday, 13 March 2014

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Mar 13 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 72 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Mar 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z

Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M9 event observed at 12/2234Z from Region 1996 (N14W78). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (14 Mar, 15 Mar, 16 Mar) because there are large, magnetically complex regions on the disk.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 504 km/s at 13/2055Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 13/0120Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 12/2313Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (14 Mar) and quiet levels on days two and three (15 Mar, 16 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 14 Mar to 16 Mar
Class M 80%80%80%
Class X 15%15%15%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       13 Mar 148
  Predicted    14 Mar-16 Mar 145/145/140
  90 Day Mean        13 Mar 158

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 12 Mar   NA/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 13 Mar  011/013
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 14 Mar-16 Mar  006/008-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Mar to 16 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm 01%01%01%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm 15%15%15%
Major-severe storm 10%05%05%

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