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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Mar 07 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 66 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Mar 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 07/1857Z from Region 1995 (S16W76). There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (08 Mar, 09 Mar, 10 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed at ACE reached 508 km/s at 06/2248Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached 121 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (08 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (09 Mar, 10 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 08 Mar to 10 Mar
Class M30%30%30%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       07 Mar 148
  Predicted   08 Mar-10 Mar 145/140/135
  90 Day Mean        07 Mar 160

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 06 Mar  005/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 07 Mar  004/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 08 Mar-10 Mar  009/012-007/010-007/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Mar to 10 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%15%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm30%25%25%
Major-severe storm35%25%25%

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