Viewing archive of Wednesday, 26 February 2014

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Feb 26 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 57 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Feb 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 26/1501Z from Region 1982 (S10W49). There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (27 Feb, 28 Feb, 01 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 390 km/s at 25/2203Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 26/1255Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 26/1725Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 23 pfu at 26/0010Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 288 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (27 Feb), quiet to active levels on day two (28 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (01 Mar). Protons are likely to cross threshold on day one (27 Feb), have a chance of crossing threshold on day two (28 Feb) and have a chance of crossing threshold on day three (01 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 27 Feb to 01 Mar
Class M 70%70%70%
Class X 30%30%30%
Proton70%40%30%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       26 Feb 178
  Predicted    27 Feb-01 Mar 180/180/175
  90 Day Mean        26 Feb 158

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 25 Feb  003/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 26 Feb  006/008
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 27 Feb-01 Mar  014/018-012/015-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Feb to 01 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%25%20%
Minor storm 15%10%05%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%20%
Minor storm 30%25%25%
Major-severe storm 45%35%25%

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