Viewing archive of Monday, 24 February 2014

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Feb 24 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 55 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Feb 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 24/1205Z. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (25 Feb, 26 Feb, 27 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 589 km/s at 24/0550Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 23/2224Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 23/2101Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (25 Feb, 27 Feb) and quiet levels on day two (26 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 25 Feb to 27 Feb
Class M60%60%60%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       24 Feb 171
  Predicted   25 Feb-27 Feb 175/180/180
  90 Day Mean        24 Feb 157

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 23 Feb  012/017
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 24 Feb  008/007
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 25 Feb-27 Feb  009/008-006/005-007/007

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Feb to 27 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%05%15%
Minor storm01%01%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm20%15%25%
Major-severe storm20%05%25%

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