Viewing archive of Monday, 24 February 2014

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Feb 24 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 55 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Feb 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 24/1205Z. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (25 Feb, 26 Feb, 27 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 589 km/s at 24/0550Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 23/2224Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 23/2101Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (25 Feb, 27 Feb) and quiet levels on day two (26 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 25 Feb to 27 Feb
Class M 60%60%60%
Class X 10%10%10%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       24 Feb 171
  Predicted    25 Feb-27 Feb 175/180/180
  90 Day Mean        24 Feb 157

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 23 Feb  012/017
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 24 Feb  008/007
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 25 Feb-27 Feb  009/008-006/005-007/007

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Feb to 27 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%05%15%
Minor storm 01%01%05%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm 20%15%25%
Major-severe storm 20%05%25%

<< Go to daily overview page

Latest news

Support SpaceWeatherLive.com!

A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!

1%

Latest alerts

Get instant alerts!

Space weather facts

Last X-flare:2017/09/10X8.2
Last M-flare:2017/10/20M1.0
Last geomagnetic storm:2019/01/05Kp5 (G1)
Number of spotless days in 2019:11
Current stretch spotless days:12

This day in history*

Solar flares
12005M4.6
22000M3.9
31999M2.0
42012M1.7
52005M1.6
ApG
1200584G4
2199537G2
3199424G1
4200718
5200418
*since 1994

Social networks