Viewing archive of Saturday, 22 February 2014
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Feb 22 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 53 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Feb 2014IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at
22/1550Z. There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (23 Feb, 24 Feb,
25 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
504 km/s at 22/0120Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 21/2304Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 21/2319Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1760 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (23 Feb) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (24 Feb, 25 Feb). Protons greater
than 10 MeV have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (23
Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 23 Feb to 25 Feb
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Feb 163 Predicted 23 Feb-25 Feb 170/175/175 90 Day Mean 22 Feb 155
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Feb 009/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Feb 014/019 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Feb-25 Feb 016/020-009/010-009/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Feb to 25 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 50% | 20% | 20% |
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