Viewing archive of Friday, 21 February 2014

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Feb 21 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 52 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Feb 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 21/1117Z from Region 1976 (S13W94). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (22 Feb, 23 Feb, 24 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 571 km/s at 21/0633Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 20/2102Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 21/0818Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1915 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (22 Feb), quiet to active levels on day two (23 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (24 Feb). Protons greater than 10 MeV have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one and two (22 Feb, 23 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 22 Feb to 24 Feb
Class M 40%50%50%
Class X 05%05%05%
Proton10%10%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       21 Feb 157
  Predicted    22 Feb-24 Feb 155/165/170
  90 Day Mean        21 Feb 155

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 20 Feb  027/040
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 21 Feb  014/015
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 22 Feb-24 Feb  015/023-016/020-009/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Feb to 24 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%35%10%
Minor storm 20%20%01%
Major-severe storm 05%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%10%15%
Minor storm 20%30%25%
Major-severe storm 55%50%20%

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