Viewing archive of Wednesday, 19 February 2014

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Feb 19 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 50 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Feb 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 19/0201Z from Region 1982 (S11E44). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (20 Feb, 21 Feb, 22 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 546 km/s at 19/1747Z. Total IMF reached 18 nT at 19/0658Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -15 nT at 19/0358Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2 pfu at 19/1515Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (20 Feb, 22 Feb) and quiet to active levels on day two (21 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 20 Feb to 22 Feb
Class M30%35%40%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       19 Feb 158
  Predicted   20 Feb-22 Feb 160/165/170
  90 Day Mean        19 Feb 155

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 18 Feb  006/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 19 Feb  035/053
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 20 Feb-22 Feb  009/010-015/015-007/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Feb to 22 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%35%20%
Minor storm05%15%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%10%15%
Minor storm30%25%30%
Major-severe storm30%50%30%

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