Viewing archive of Monday, 17 February 2014

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Feb 17 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 48 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Feb 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at 17/0304Z from Region 1977 (S10W16). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate on day one (18 Feb) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days two and three (19 Feb, 20 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 442 km/s at 17/1655Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 17/2137Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 17/1856Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (18 Feb, 19 Feb, 20 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 18 Feb to 20 Feb
Class M60%45%35%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       17 Feb 152
  Predicted   18 Feb-20 Feb 145/135/135
  90 Day Mean        17 Feb 154

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 16 Feb  014/018
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 17 Feb  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 18 Feb-20 Feb  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Feb to 20 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%05%05%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm15%15%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

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