Viewing archive of Saturday, 15 February 2014

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Feb 15 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 46 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Feb 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 15/0318Z from Region 1973 (N06W72). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate on days one and two (16 Feb, 17 Feb) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on day three (18 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 487 km/s at 15/1239Z. Total IMF reached 16 nT at 15/1338Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -12 nT at 15/2100Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1235 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (16 Feb), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (17 Feb) and quiet levels on day three (18 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 16 Feb to 18 Feb
Class M 60%60%45%
Class X 05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       15 Feb 162
  Predicted    16 Feb-18 Feb 160/155/155
  90 Day Mean        15 Feb 154

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 14 Feb  004/002
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 15 Feb  010/014
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 16 Feb-18 Feb  013/015-010/012-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Feb to 18 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%15%05%
Minor storm 15%05%01%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%15%15%
Minor storm 30%25%15%
Major-severe storm 45%25%05%

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