Viewing archive of Thursday, 13 February 2014
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Feb 13 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 44 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Feb 2014IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
13/0140Z from Region 1974 (S07W25). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(14 Feb, 15 Feb, 16 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 431 km/s at
12/2151Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 13/0904Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached 0 nT at 13/1353Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1686 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (14 Feb), unsettled to
major storm levels on day two (15 Feb) and unsettled to active levels on
day three (16 Feb). The increased activity is associated with the
anticipated arrival of the CMEs observed on 11 and 12 Feb.
III. Event Probabilities 14 Feb to 16 Feb
| Class M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Feb 167 Predicted 14 Feb-16 Feb 165/165/160 90 Day Mean 13 Feb 155
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Feb 005/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Feb 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Feb-16 Feb 015/025-028/040-015/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Feb to 16 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 35% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 40% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 20% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 05% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 60% | 75% | 55% |
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