Viewing archive of Tuesday, 11 February 2014

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Feb 11 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 42 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Feb 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 11/1651Z from Region 1974 (S13E04). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (12 Feb, 13 Feb, 14 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 617 km/s at 10/2205Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 11/1133Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 11/0354Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 906 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (12 Feb, 13 Feb) and quiet to active levels on day three (14 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 12 Feb to 14 Feb
Class M 45%45%45%
Class X 10%10%10%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       11 Feb 172
  Predicted    12 Feb-14 Feb 170/165/160
  90 Day Mean        11 Feb 155

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 10 Feb  009/009
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 11 Feb  006/005
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 12 Feb-14 Feb  006/005-005/005-012/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Feb to 14 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%05%35%
Minor storm 01%01%15%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%10%
Minor storm 15%15%25%
Major-severe storm 05%05%50%

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