Viewing archive of Saturday, 8 February 2014

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Feb 08 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 39 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Feb 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at 08/1833Z from Region 1967 (S13W77). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on day one (09 Feb) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on day two (10 Feb) and likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day three (11 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 476 km/s at 08/0819Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 08/0010Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 07/2201Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (09 Feb), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (10 Feb) and quiet levels on day three (11 Feb). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one and two (09 Feb, 10 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 09 Feb to 11 Feb
Class M60%40%10%
Class X20%05%01%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       08 Feb 172
  Predicted   09 Feb-11 Feb 160/145/140
  90 Day Mean        08 Feb 155

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 07 Feb  007/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 08 Feb  016/018
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 09 Feb-11 Feb  010/012-008/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Feb to 11 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm15%05%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm30%25%15%
Major-severe storm45%25%05%

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