Viewing archive of Saturday, 8 February 2014

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Feb 08 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 39 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Feb 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at 08/1833Z from Region 1967 (S13W77). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on day one (09 Feb) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on day two (10 Feb) and likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day three (11 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 476 km/s at 08/0819Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 08/0010Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 07/2201Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (09 Feb), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (10 Feb) and quiet levels on day three (11 Feb). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one and two (09 Feb, 10 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 09 Feb to 11 Feb
Class M60%40%10%
Class X20%05%01%
Proton10%10%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       08 Feb 172
  Predicted   09 Feb-11 Feb 160/145/140
  90 Day Mean        08 Feb 155

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 07 Feb  007/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 08 Feb  016/018
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 09 Feb-11 Feb  010/012-008/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Feb to 11 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%15%05%
Minor storm15%05%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm30%25%15%
Major-severe storm45%25%05%

<< Go to daily overview page

Support SpaceWeatherLive.com!

A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!

48%

Space weather facts

Last X-flare2017/09/10X8.2
Last M-flare2020/05/29M1.1
Last geomagnetic storm2020/04/20Kp5 (G1)
Spotless days
Last 365 days318 days
2020125 days (81%)
Last spotless day2020/06/02

This day in history*

Solar flares
12007M8.9
21999M3.9
32000M3.2
42001M2.4
52001M1.7
ApG
1200522G2
2200322
3199419
4201216
5201014G1
*since 1994

Social networks