Viewing archive of Thursday, 6 February 2014

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Feb 06 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 37 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Feb 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at 06/0431Z from Region 1968 (N08W48). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (07 Feb, 08 Feb, 09 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 465 km/s at 06/0512Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 06/0218Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 06/0831Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (07 Feb), quiet to minor storm levels on day two (08 Feb) and quiet to active levels on day three (09 Feb). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (07 Feb, 08 Feb, 09 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 07 Feb to 09 Feb
Class M60%60%60%
Class X20%20%20%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       06 Feb 191
  Predicted   07 Feb-09 Feb 008/015/010
  90 Day Mean        06 Feb 155

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 05 Feb  005/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 06 Feb  007/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 07 Feb-09 Feb  007/008-012/015-009/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Feb to 09 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%35%35%
Minor storm05%20%15%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%10%15%
Minor storm25%25%30%
Major-severe storm25%50%45%

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