Viewing archive of Tuesday, 4 February 2014
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Feb 04 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 35 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Feb 2014IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M5 event observed at
04/0400Z from Region 1967 (S12W24). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (05 Feb, 06
Feb, 07 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 380 km/s at
04/2055Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 04/1318Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -5 nT at 04/0203Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (05 Feb, 06 Feb, 07
Feb). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one,
two, and three (05 Feb, 06 Feb, 07 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 05 Feb to 07 Feb
| Class M | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| Class X | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Feb 188 Predicted 05 Feb-07 Feb 185/180/180 90 Day Mean 04 Feb 154
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Feb 005/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Feb 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Feb-07 Feb 006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Feb to 07 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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