Viewing archive of Sunday, 2 February 2014
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Feb 02 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 33 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Feb 2014IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M4/1b event observed at
02/0931Z from Region 1967 (S13E01). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (03 Feb, 04
Feb, 05 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
426 km/s at 02/1515Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 02/1522Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 02/0309Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (03 Feb), quiet to active
levels on day two (04 Feb) and quiet levels on day three (05 Feb).
Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold
on days two and three (04 Feb, 05 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 03 Feb to 05 Feb
| Class M | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| Class X | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Proton | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Feb 190 Predicted 03 Feb-05 Feb 195/200/205 90 Day Mean 02 Feb 153
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Feb 002/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Feb 007/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Feb-05 Feb 008/008-008/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Feb to 05 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 25% | 05% |
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