Viewing archive of Friday, 31 January 2014

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Jan 31 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 31 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Jan 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 31/1542Z from Region 1968 (N10E29). There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (01 Feb, 02 Feb, 03 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 376 km/s at 31/0319Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 31/0404Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 31/0929Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (01 Feb), quiet to minor storm levels on day two (02 Feb) and quiet to active levels on day three (03 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 01 Feb to 03 Feb
Class M 60%60%60%
Class X 15%15%15%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       31 Jan 166
  Predicted    01 Feb-03 Feb 170/175/175
  90 Day Mean        31 Jan 152

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 30 Jan  004/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 31 Jan  002/003
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 01 Feb-03 Feb  006/005-013/017-010/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Feb to 03 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%30%20%
Minor storm 01%15%05%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%10%15%
Minor storm 15%25%25%
Major-severe storm 05%45%25%

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