Viewing archive of Thursday, 30 January 2014

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Jan 30 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 30 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Jan 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z

Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M6 event observed at 30/1611Z from Region 1967 (S14E41). It also produced a Type II (2161 km/s) radio emission, a Tenflare (220 sfu) and a coronal mass ejection which may have an Earth-directed component. Analysis is underway. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (31 Jan, 01 Feb, 02 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 452 km/s at 30/0544Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 29/2100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 30/0203Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (31 Jan, 01 Feb, 02 Feb). However, the potential for a glancing blow as early as Day 2 (01 Feb) from the CME described above could push the geomagnetic field to unsettled to active levels with a slight chance for a minor (G1) storm period. Well refrain from adding that to this forecast until after we have examined the WSA-Enlil model output.
III. Event Probabilities 31 Jan to 02 Feb
Class M60%60%60%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       30 Jan 161
  Predicted   31 Jan-02 Feb 165/170/175
  90 Day Mean        30 Jan 152

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 29 Jan  006/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 30 Jan  007/007
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 31 Jan-02 Feb  005/012-006/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Jan to 02 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%05%05%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm15%15%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

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